In the latter half of this week, the precious metals market has turned optimistic again, with international gold prices resuming their upward trend. As of the close on Friday, both COMEX gold and London gold rose by more than 1%, reaching around $2,674 per ounce and $2,657 per ounce, respectively, almost recapturing the losses during the National Day period. This year, the international gold price has increased by nearly 30%, showing the strong momentum of the gold market.
Dual Boost from Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Conflicts
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have always been an important factor affecting gold prices. Since the Federal Reserve started the rate cut cycle on September 19th, market expectations for the future extent and pace of rate cuts have been constantly changing. Although there is disagreement within the Federal Reserve on rate cuts, the overall trend of rate cuts has been established. Xia Yingying, a non-ferrous analyst at Nanhua Futures, said: "With the previous bearish news exhausted, gold prices are still driven by the safe-haven sentiment under geopolitical influences." This means that even in the face of disagreements among Federal Reserve officials and slightly better-than-expected economic data, gold prices still show strong resistance to falling.
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Rising Tensions in the Middle East Boost Gold Prices
In addition to monetary policy factors, the tension in geopolitical situations is also an important driving force for the rise in gold prices. Recently, the tense relationship between Israel and Iran has caused market concerns. Analyst Jia Yingying pointed out: "Israel's claim of retaliation against Iran, and the concern about possible attacks on Iranian oil facilities, have triggered a surge in oil prices, and also promoted gold's safe-haven and inflation trades." This situation has not only affected the crude oil market but also injected new momentum into the gold market, highlighting the important position of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Many Uncertainties Remain in Future Gold Price Trends
Looking ahead, the gold market still faces multiple uncertainties. First, the specific pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle still need to be observed. The market generally expects this round of rate cuts to reach 250 basis points, but the specific implementation process may be adjusted due to changes in economic data and policy attitudes. Second, the progress and outcome of the US elections may have a significant impact on gold prices. In addition, geopolitical issues such as the Ukraine crisis, tensions between Lebanon and Israel, and between Iran and Israel will continue to affect the gold market. It is worth noting that although domestic active policy measures are beneficial for supporting the capital market and enhancing investor confidence, they may reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven tool to a certain extent.
In summary, in the complex and changing international environment, gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains prominent. With the start of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle and the continued tension in global geopolitical situations, gold prices are expected to remain firm. While investors pay attention to the trend of gold prices, they also need to closely monitor the changes in various influencing factors in order to make more rational investment decisions.